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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.